November, 2023

The Caspian region, a pivotal geopolitical area, is witnessing a significant shift in the wake of the United States revising its strategic approach. The initiation of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine marked the end of a transitional era in international relations, spanning three decades since the Soviet Union's disintegration. This period is pivotal in shaping the new world order in the 21st century, with intense competition among global powers.

The United States, having dominated the unipolar world order for thirty years, acknowledges the importance of current developments. Joe Biden, in the preamble to the recently published 48-page National Security Strategy, underscores the critical juncture the world faces, with the U.S. response set to influence global security for generations.

This strategy outlines the commencement of a decisive decade, setting the stage for geopolitical competition. The U.S. is positioned uniquely in this struggle, bolstered by the largest number of allies sharing its worldview.

Impact on the Caspian Region

Historically, Russia and Iran dominated the Caspian region. However, the emergence of new independent states like Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan transformed the region's geopolitical landscape. Today, it faces complex challenges, including unresolved legal status of the Caspian Sea and various national and regional issues.

The U.S. seeks to leverage current global dynamics to expand its influence in Russia's traditional sphere of interest, particularly in the Caspian region. This involves enhancing trade-economic, political, humanitarian, and security cooperation with regional countries.

U.S. National Security Strategy Focus

The new U.S. strategy highlights Central Asia and the South Caucasus, with the Caspian Sea at their core, as areas of interest. The primary goal is to reduce Europe's reliance on Russian fossil fuels and bolster European energy security. This involves cooperation with the European Union and integrating Central Asia, South Caucasus, and Europe.

Recent Developments and U.S. Plans

The U.S. has rapidly acted to diminish the Caspian region's dependence on Russia, as evidenced by high-level meetings with Central Asian foreign ministers and U.S. State Secretary Antony Blinken.

American military experts propose a focus on security cooperation, suggesting initiatives like the National Guard State Partnership Program and sharing maritime and infrastructure security expertise.

Political and Economic Strategies

U.S. officials have articulated their approach towards Central Asia at the U.S. Congress, emphasizing support for American businesses against non-market activities by China and Russia. The USAID's increased budget for Central Asia aims to reduce the region's dependence on Russia and China, promoting regional connectivity and economic diversification.

Conclusion

The unfolding events in Ukraine have significantly altered the geopolitical landscape of the Caspian region. The U.S. is attempting to redirect the region's development vector, potentially destabilizing the area. However, the successful 30-year Caspian dialogue, culminating in the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea, offers hope for continued cooperation and mutual understanding among the littoral states. This approach is essential for achieving sustainable socio-economic development in the Caspian region.