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The Tipping Point: The Rise of a New Reserve Currency and the Potential Fall of the Dollar's Hegemony

Amid growing geopolitical tensions and the escalating Ukraine crisis, concerns regarding the future of the US dollar's world reserve currency status are beginning to surface. The vast US debt and the desire of other nations to trade in local currencies have fueled speculation about the possible erosion of

Steven Alber profile image
by Steven Alber
The Tipping Point: The Rise of a New Reserve Currency and the Potential Fall of the Dollar's Hegemony

Amid growing geopolitical tensions and the escalating Ukraine crisis, concerns regarding the future of the US dollar's world reserve currency status are beginning to surface. The vast US debt and the desire of other nations to trade in local currencies have fueled speculation about the possible erosion of the dollar's dominance. The catalyst for this change may lie in the hands of the BRICS nations, according to James Rickards, a former CIA and Department of Defense advisor.

Rickards foresees a significant shift in international finance with the potential to destabilize the dollar's stronghold. On August 22, a date he considers pivotal, he predicts the BRICS bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) will unveil a new trade and reserve currency during the BRICS Leaders’ Summit Conference in South Africa. This new currency could serve as an alternative to the dollar, gradually weakening its role in global payments and possibly displacing it as the leading payment and reserve currency within a few years.

The impact of this new currency, Rickards anticipates, will be substantial and far-reaching, affecting world trade, foreign investment, and investor portfolios in dramatic, unforeseen ways. Such a shift could send an unprecedented geopolitical shockwave around the globe, for which the world may be ill-prepared.

Eight countries, including economic powerhouses such as Argentina, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, have already formally applied to join the BRICS bloc. Rickards underscores the importance of this expansion, stating that it's not merely about increasing the membership count but about concentrating economic power. For instance, having Saudi Arabia and Russia, two of the world's largest energy producers, under one umbrella could profoundly impact global energy politics.

The collective power of the BRICS nations and their prospective members is immense, encompassing 30% of the world's surface area and related natural resources, 50% of global wheat and rice production, 15% of the planet’s gold reserves, 40% of the global population, and a substantial portion of the world's GDP. This formidable bloc presents a credible alternative to Western hegemony, thereby significantly enhancing the success potential of their proposed new currency.

Rickards anticipates the BRICS reserve currency will be pegged to a basket of trade commodities or gold, and likely will exist as a digital currency. The new currency would be part of a permissioned ledger maintained by a new BRICS+ financial institution. The success of this currency as a reserve alternative to the dollar hinges on creating a viable alternative to the massive US Treasury market, which is currently considered a safe store of value by investors worldwide. To achieve this, Rickards proposes the creation of a BRICS+ currency bond market, accessible to retail investors, that would offer an attractive store of value compared to inflation.

The push by the BRICS nations to escape the dollar's hegemony has been largely spurred by the US's own policies, specifically the weaponization of the dollar through sanctions. Rickards has previously warned US officials that the overuse or abuse of dollar sanctions would prompt adversaries to abandon the dollar, diluting the potency of sanctions, imposing unforeseen costs on the US, and potentially leading to a collapse of confidence in the dollar. These warnings were largely ignored, and now, Rickards believes, the world is on the brink of seeing these predictions come to fruition.

The unfolding story of the BRICS nations' currency may mark a tectonic shift in global finance. The world is anxiously watching the upcoming BRICS Leaders’ Summit Conference, where this potential game-changer in international finance may be revealed. As we approach this tipping point, only time will tell how the global community will adapt to a new monetary era.

The BRICS+ currency could create a new monetary landscape, forcing businesses, investors, and even individuals to adapt to a world where the US dollar isn't the primary reserve currency. Financial institutions would need to prepare for increased currency diversification and develop the ability to transact seamlessly in multiple currencies, including the new BRICS+ currency.

As the role of the dollar diminishes, it would also affect the geopolitical balance of power. The United States' ability to impose economic sanctions as a tool of foreign policy could be significantly weakened, altering the dynamics of international politics. Countries that have historically been economically vulnerable to such sanctions could find newfound freedom in conducting their economic policies, leading to a redistribution of global influence.

Moreover, the proposed digital nature of the BRICS+ currency suggests a shift towards more advanced technology-based finance. This could result in heightened competition in the field of fintech and digital payments, pushing the global economy further into the digital age.

However, any transition from one global reserve currency to another won't occur overnight. It's a long and complex process that requires substantial infrastructure and confidence in the new currency. For the BRICS+ currency to become a viable global reserve currency, the participating nations must demonstrate economic stability, transparency, and a commitment to upholding sound monetary policies. The proposed gold or commodity backing could lend credibility, but without sound fiscal and monetary policies, the new currency could struggle to gain traction.

Regardless of these challenges, Rickards remains confident that the shift to a new reserve currency will begin in earnest on August 22, 2023. The introduction of the BRICS+ currency could spark a significant transformation in the global financial landscape, marking the beginning of a new chapter in monetary history.

In conclusion, the potential erosion of the dollar's hegemony, catalyzed by the BRICS bloc's new reserve currency, presents a profound shift in the global financial order. This shift could usher in a new era characterized by the decline of Western economic dominance, the rise of a more distributed global economic order, and a digital revolution in international finance. While uncertainties remain, one thing is clear: the world is standing at the precipice of a significant change.

Steven Alber profile image
by Steven Alber

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