September 10, 2023

In a crucial move that underscores the dynamics of geopolitics and the intricacies of food security, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is vigorously advocating for the reinstatement of the Black Sea Grain Initiative at the ongoing G-20 summit in New Delhi. Initiated in 2022, this agreement allowed Ukrainian grain shipments to proceed, thereby playing a pivotal role in stabilizing global food prices.

Erdogan's push during the summit, as outlined by insiders, revolves around addressing some of Russia's demands to breathe new life into this crucial agreement. The original pact had seen a setback earlier this year when Moscow pulled out in July, thus disrupting Ukrainian grain shipments via the Black Sea. Subsequent talks between Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi failed to realign Russia with the grain deal.

Amidst the tense backdrop of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, Erdogan's persuasive efforts highlight Turkey's tenacious desire to restore the grain shipments under the UN-backed deal. However, Erdogan's balancing act is proving to be a Herculean task, especially as he navigates the complex waters of geopolitics where aligning with Russia might not sit well with Ukraine's allies in the West.

At the heart of the discussions is Turkey's appeal to global leaders to endorse the insurance of Russian food and fertilizer exports via Lloyd’s of London. Moreover, there's a push to reintegrate Moscow into the SWIFT system for international transactions—a move that is being viewed with extreme sensitivity.

G-20 members, recognizing the overarching importance of the grain deal, are set to advocate for unhampered grain and foodstuff deliveries from both Russia and Ukraine. The overarching sentiment is that reinstating the agreement is paramount to catering to the demands of developing nations, especially in Africa. This plea is coupled with a call to halt any military actions that might jeopardize relevant infrastructures.

Ukraine, despite the hurdles posed by the termination of the Black Sea Grain Initiative by Russia, has been proactive in redirecting its grain exports through the Danube and Croatian ports. With the European Union's ban on Ukrainian wheat and other agricultural products set to lapse on September 15, Ukraine is also keen on expanding its export channels through Bulgaria.

The global stage is now set with all eyes on the G-20 summit. With President Erdogan at the helm of negotiations, it remains to be seen if a middle ground can be found—a ground that not only caters to the geopolitical sensibilities but also addresses the pressing issue of food security in a rapidly changing world.